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​Prof. Michael D. Hurd, PhD

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NAR-Colloquium: 10. Dezember 2007, 18 Uhr, DKFZ Kommunikationszentrum


HurdProf. Michael D. Hurd, PhD

RAND, Santa Monica | USA

Subjective mortality expectations and their influence on economic decision-making

An input into intertemporal decision-making by individuals is the likelihood or probability of important future events such as health change or survival.  Yet, until fairly recently we had little useful quantifiable information about the subjective probabilities held by individuals of these and other events.  This talk will review the measurement of subjective probabilities, particularly survival and health, in household surveys.  It will present data on their properties such as their predictive power for actual survival and for change.  It will give some results on how subjective probabilities can be used to overcome empirical difficulties caused by individual heterogeneity.  Applications will included the bereavement hypothesis (the death of a spouse leads to an early death of the other spouse), and the puzzling age-gradient in self-rated health.


Zur Person


Ph.D., Economics, 1967-1971, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley

M.S., Statistics, 1967-1971, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley

B.S., Electrical Engineering, 1959-1964, University of Utah, Salt Lake Cit



Current Position: Senior Economist and Director, RAND Center for the Study of Aging

Current Position:  Research Associate, National Bureau of Economic Research

1971-1978: Assistant Professor, Stanford University

1978-1987: Associate Professor, SUNY at Stony Brook

1981-1982: Visiting Associate Professor of Economics, Stanford University

1984-1985: Visiting Professor, School of Business Administration, University of California, Berkeley

1985: Visiting Associate Professor of Economics, Stanford University

1987- 2000: Professor, SUNY at Stony Brook

1991-1992: Chairman, Department of Economics, SUNY at Stony Brook

1997: Visiting Senior Scientist, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan



National Science Foundation Graduate Traineeship

Ford Foundation Career Fellowship

Department of Labor Manpower Dissertation Grant

Mellon Fellowship, 1974

NBER Faculty Research Fellowship, 1977-1978

Hoover Institution National Fellow, 1981-1982

Member, National Academy of Social Insurance, 1989-

Chair, Economics of Aging Formal Interest Group, Gerontological Society, 1995-1996

Fulvio Guerrini Lecture, University of Turin, 1998


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Latest Revision: 2020-02-03
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